RAND Expert Available to Discuss North Korea's Attack on South Korea

RAND Senior Defense Analyst Bruce Bennett, who specializes in North and South Korean military strategy, is available for interviews to discuss North Korea's artillery attack on South Korea.

Among Bennett's key observations:

• North Korea appears to be a failing state, attempting a questionable leadership succession. The apparently designated successor, Kim Jong-Eun, needs to purge the military and bring his supporters to the front. But if the purges are too visible, he could see rebellion from the military.
• The attack on the warship Cheonan in March and the artillery shelling today appear designed to give Kim Jong-Eun credibility with the military, demonstrate the empowerment of the regime, and divert the attention of the military to external enemies while the regime purges the military.
• Kim Jong-Il went to China twice this year seeking aid. The Chinese were not very responsive. He now appears to be attempting to force the ROK and United States to negotiate and provide that aid through a combination of growing the nuclear threat and military attacks.
• The North Korean regime may actually want a U.S./ROK military retaliation, as that would strengthen the diversion of the North Korean military.
• The best U.S./ROK response is political: saying North Korea did this because of internal instability, that it could collapse in coming years, and that the U.S./ROK must begin preparations. These preparations should initially focus on promptly providing humanitarian aid in North Korea.

Bruce Bennett is the author of "Uncertainties in the North Korean Nuclear Threat" and "A Brief Analysis of the Republic of Korea's Defense Reform Plan."