RAND Expert Available to Discuss Collapse of Lebanese Government

RAND Lebanon expert Fred Wehrey is available for interviews on reports that the Lebanese government collapsed Wednesday after 11 ministers from Hizballah and its allies resigned from the 14-month-old unity government.

Among the points he can address:

• The government collapse will likely return Lebanon to the high-stakes deadlock of 2006-2008.
• The new deadlock will invite increased external interference in Lebanon—particularly from Iran and Saudi Arabia.
• Because its public image suffered, Hizballah is unlikely to forcibly challenge the government as it did in May 2008.
• The results of the tribunal represent the next major hurdle in Lebanese governance, and there is the potential for violence if there are attempts to arrest Hizballah members.
• The cohesion of the Lebanese Army is a key litmus test: Will it stand aside, actively support the March 8 coalition, or will it enforce tribunal results? A number of top officers in the Lebanese Army are Aounists, or aligned with Hizballah/AMAL.

Fred Wehrey is a RAND senior policy analyst focusing on the Middle East. In 2010, Wehrey conducted research in Lebanon focusing on the Lebanese Army's relationship with Hizballah.